Research annex, September 2026

The evidence behind the concept.

This annex backs every figure on the concept site. It was compiled as a desk review across four disciplines: market and ecosystem, cost and impact finance, climate and regulation, and education and enterprise. Kenyan prices, policy documents and outcome evidence were checked against named sources.

How to read the numbers. Figures with a named source are quoted as published. Budgets, revenues and targets are the review's own indicative modelling, shown with the assumptions behind them. Phase 1 replaces them with a quantity surveyor's bill of quantities, fabricator quotes and a signed site lease. Exchange rate: USD 1 = KES 129.48 (Central Bank of Kenya, 24 September 2026).

1. Market and demographics

Indicator	Value	Year	Source
Mombasa County population	1,208,333 (projected 1,422,440 in 2027), entirely urban	2019	KNBS census, via Mombasa CIDP 2023-2027
Kisauni sub-county population	291,930, 24% of the county and its most populous sub-county	2019	Mombasa CIDP 2023-2027
Residents aged 15 to 35	529,351, about 44% of the county	2019	KNBS census, via CIDP
Children aged 6 to 17	275,594 (derived from school-age cohorts)	2019	KNBS census, via CIDP
Absolute poverty, Mombasa	34.8%	2022	CIDP county fact sheet
Youth unemployment, 15 to 24	15.2%	2025	ILO modelled estimate, World Bank WDI
Youth not in education, employment or training	18.5% overall, 24.6% for young women	2021	ILO, World Bank WDI
New jobs created in Kenya	822,100, of which 87.2% informal	2025	KNBS Economic Survey 2026
Young people entering the labour market	Over 1 million a year (employer body estimate)	Current	Federation of Kenya Employers
Mobile subscriptions and internet use	88.0 million subscriptions, but 35% of people use the internet	2026 / 2024	Communications Authority; ITU via World Bank
Online workers and ward hubs	About 330,000 youth in online work; about 290 of a targeted 1,450 ward digital hubs operating	May 2026	Government briefing, The Star
Women's mobile internet use	35% of women against 50% of men; women hold under 30% of ICT roles	2024-2025	GSMA; UN Women Africa
African hub sustainability	643 hubs in 2019 (Kenya 50); over 110 had closed; 60% depend on donor funding; most raised under USD 100,000	2019	AfriLabs and Briter Bridges

What the county has already committed to

The Mombasa CIDP 2023-2027 plans ward-level ICT hubs with free Wi-Fi, a business innovation and incubation hub, 10 incubated ICT startups and 100 ICT internships a year, youth and women's co-operatives, and a transition to a circular economy. Only one of six planned material recovery facilities had been built. SAVIT's zones map onto these commitments, which supports a county partnership or MoU rather than a pure grant request.

The local landscape

Swahilipot Hub (Mombasa's anchor youth hub, 4,000+ members mentored by December 2023) and Pwani Teknowgalz (6,000+ girls and young women reached since 2016) are strong partners rather than competitors. Private kids' coding academies serve paying families. The desk review found no public makerspace with digital fabrication on the Coast, and no hub linking making to waste recovery beside Mwakirunge, the county's main dumpsite in Kisauni.

Policy status note: the Kenya Startup Bill is not law. As of May 2026 it sits with a parliamentary mediation committee. The Hub is positioned to qualify as an incubator if and when it passes.

2. Indicative cost and revenue model

Mid case headline: KES 44.4M to build and equip, KES 15.6M a year to run, and KES 60.7M (about USD 469,000) to open and carry the Hub for 18 months.

Capital cost by group (KES millions)

Group and main lines	Low	Mid	High
Structure and site. Five used 40 ft high-cube containers (KES 350k to 500k each), haulage and crane, foundations and commons slab, structural steel and marine coating, fit-out at KES 1.2M to 2.2M per container, stair and walkways, platform lift, solar canopy, accessible WC block, site works	13.47	18.71	26.44
Energy and water. 20 kWp hybrid solar with 20 to 30 kWh lithium storage, two 10,000 L rain tanks, fans and two inverter AC units	2.75	3.65	4.85
Equipment. Eco-Print Lab (6 FDM printers, resin printer, shredder and extruder), Makerspace kits and tools, 20 laptops and 2 GPU workstations, studio kit, incubation furniture, commons AV, software	8.04	11.67	17.30
Soft costs and pre-opening. Design, structural engineer, QS, NEMA EIA, county approvals and NCA levy; core team hired 2 to 3 months early; launch and MoUs	2.80	4.54	6.95
Contingency (10% / 15% / 20%)	2.71	5.78	11.11
Total capital cost	29.76	44.35	66.65
USD equivalent	230k	343k	515k

Excludes land purchase; the site is assumed to be provided under a long lease. Mid capex excluding equipment works out at about KES 93,000 per m², above premium Kenyan container fabrication (KES 45,000 to 70,000 per m²) because of the lift, stair, canopy, solar and water systems a public multi-level building needs.

Running costs, Year 1

Staff: hub manager, programme officer, 3 lead trainers, studio producer, front desk, technician, cleaner, contracted security, outsourced finance	9.77M
Electricity top-up, internet (fibre plus satellite failover), water	0.64M
Consumables and programme delivery	1.68M
Marketing, software, admin, audit	0.98M
Maintenance, insurance, equipment renewal reserve	2.19M
Site lease placeholder	0.30M
Total (rising 7% a year)	15.55M

Staff are 63% of running costs, consistent with AfriLabs' finding that wages are hubs' largest cost line.

Earned revenue ramp

Stream	Y1	Y2	Y3
Learning: clubs, camps, schools, adult courses, corporate	1.98	3.20	4.62
Space: membership, co-working, rooms, events	1.12	1.93	2.74
Services: studio, consultancy, printing, incubation, products	0.90	1.90	3.05
Total earned (KES M)	3.99	7.03	10.41
Share of running costs	26%	42%	58%
Gap for sponsors, grants, CSR	11.56	9.61	7.40

Prices are set at 20 to 35% of Nairobi benchmarks (Nairobi Garage hot desk about KES 11,000 a month; Moringa bootcamp KES 174,000 to 200,000; Nairobi kids' camps KES 10,000 to 40,000). Swahilipot's membership, about KES 2,200 a year, anchors local pricing. A 30% volume shortfall gives about 41% cover in Year 3; 30% above plan gives about 76%.

Funding ask

Tranche 1: capital cost including 15% contingency	KES 44.35M	USD 343k
Tranche 2: 18-month operating runway (KES 23.87M) less earned revenue in the same period (KES 7.51M)	KES 16.37M	USD 126k
Headline ask, mid case	KES 60.72M	USD 469k
Lean case (low capex, 12 months) to cautious case (high capex, 18 months, revenue 15% below mid)	36.9M to 93.9M	285k to 725k
Full three-year catalytic need (capex plus operating gaps, Years 1 to 3)	KES 72.92M	USD 563k

Funding routes identified: foundation and bilateral capital windows (for example Mastercard Foundation Young Africa Works, EU and GIZ skills and climate windows); five container naming sponsorships at about KES 1M a year each, sold as 3-year packages; Jitume ward-hub designation for devices and connectivity; KCIC for circular-plastics ventures; concessional or asset finance for revenue-earning equipment. The Hilton Foundation's USD 2.55M grant to Swahilipot (2023) shows Mombasa youth hubs are fundable at this scale.

3. Waste, climate and regulation

Indicator	Value	Source
Solid waste, Mombasa	1,000 t a day generated, 600 t collected and disposed, 5% recycled, projected to grow 30%	Mombasa CIDP 2023-2027
County digital waste platform	"Could not be implemented due to lack of technical personnel in ICT"	Mombasa CIDP 2023-2027, Table 18
Plastic in Mombasa's waste	About 120 t a day (2015 measurement)	SEI plastics value-chain study, 2022
Kenya plastic waste	503,000 t a year, 7% recycled	IUCN, EA and Quantis 2020, cited by SEI 2022
Price paid to collectors	KES 10 to 27 per kg of unprocessed plastic	SEI 2022 fieldwork
Producer responsibility	Producers must run take-back schemes, trace products and report volumes collected and recycled to NEMA by 31 January each year and to counties	Sustainable Waste Management (EPR) Regulations 2024, LN 176
Heat	Mean 27.9°C; hottest month February, 33.1°C average maximum	Mombasa CIDP 2023-2027
Sea-level rise	4 to 6 km² of Mombasa could be submerged by 0.3 m of rise	Mombasa CIDP 2023-2027
Circular-economy grants	EU Tujenge Pamoja: EUR 5.4M, 150 businesses to receive EUR 20,000 to 50,000; Mombasa is a target county	Science Africa, May 2026
Kenya NDC	35% emissions reduction by 2035 against business as usual	Climate Action Tracker

Building on a hot, salty coast

Weathering steel does not self-protect in chloride-laden air. Specify an ISO 12944 C4/C5 system, galvanise all new steel and seal cut edges the same day.
A ventilated fly roof over all five containers is the most effective climate move. It also carries the solar array and feeds the tanks.
Run long axes east to west, cross-ventilate to the Kaskazi and Kusi monsoon winds, and use non-combustible mineral-wool insulation.
Raise containers on piers 450 to 600 mm high for flood freeboard. Frame every opening, stack corner-on-corner and engineer the cantilever.
Give every occupied container two exits, keep the Eco-Print Lab downwind with local exhaust, and replace or seal original container floors before children use them.

Approvals and compliance path

National Building Code 2024 (LN 47 of 2024): submit as a permanent steel-framed building, not a temporary structure.
Mombasa County development permission and building plan approval, starting with a pre-application meeting. Allow 4 to 6 months.
NCA project registration and an NCA-registered contractor; one NEMA EIA project report covering the whole site, including the Eco-Print Lab.
Persons with Disabilities Act 2025: ramps, a platform lift, an accessible WC and doors at least 900 mm clear.
Data Protection Act 2019: ODPC registration, parental consent for children, and a DPIA for Waste Bridge collector data.
Children Act 2022: safeguarding policy and lead, DCI clearance for all staff and volunteers, two-adult rule.

Precedent: the Samsung Solar Powered Internet School at Arap Moi Primary, Kajiado (2014), a 40 ft container classroom with 24 laptops and solar power, shows a Kenyan container digital classroom can be built and run. Mill Junction in Johannesburg shows stacked container buildings get approved and occupied at scale.

4. Education, enterprise and capacity

Demand and evidence

49% of Kenya's first Senior School cohort, about 512,000 learners, entered the STEM pathway in January 2026 (Daily Nation, Dec 2025).
Kenya approved its first coding syllabus for schools in April 2022, piloted in 100 primary and 50 secondary schools (KICD, via The Standard).
Project-based learning lifts achievement by d = 0.71 against traditional teaching (Chen and Yang meta-analysis, 2019). Robotics meta-analyses show moderate positive effects on STEM learning (2024).
Kenya's World Bank-backed youth employment project reached 310,889 youth, half of them women; 86% were in work afterwards and average monthly earnings rose from KES 10,970 to KES 13,793 (World Bank, 2023).
Rigorous evidence on makerspaces in Africa is thin. The Hub's own measured outcomes are designed to help close that gap.

Capacity model behind the targets

Target	Year 1	Year 3
Youth and adults trained (32+ hours)	350	520
Short-workshop participants	600	900
Children reached (unique)	1,500	3,000
of whom 12+ contact hours	700	1,200
Partner schools	8	20
Startups incubated	8	16
Working prototypes	40	80
Community members engaged	3,000	5,700

Seats multiplied by sessions a day, days, weeks (48 operating weeks, 36 in school term) and utilisation (55% in Year 1, 80% in Year 3). The model assumes a 24-seat digital studio; a single 2.35 m container fits one row of desks, so the layout is confirmed in Phase 1 design.

Monitoring and evaluation

Twelve indicators are tracked by learner ID, including completion, economic outcome at 180 days (target 50% in Year 1 and 65% in Year 3, reported with response rates), income change, women's participation, disability inclusion measured with the Washington Group questions, children's learning gains on pre/post computational-thinking tasks, school partnerships, startup survival at 12 months, venture traction, prototypes and safeguarding compliance. The public dashboard shows aggregates only: no child names or faces, and any cell under 10 people is suppressed.

Sources